The photo below shows a COMPARISON of PENDING SALES and ACTIVE SALES, over the past 15 months, in the Maricopa Metropolitan area (includes Town of Maricopa, Queen Creek & San Tan Valley, in Pinal County).
We always see a drop off of buyers, once school starts back up (August). We believe that these numbers, particularly year over year on the pending sales contracts are a bit more than seasonal adjustments. Pending sales contracts are a direct representation of DEMAND. And because most contracts close escrow at the end of the month, the 11,377 pending number is going to drop well below 9,000, in the coming week, from the 20,312 pending sales number from 5/29/2012. That < 9,000 will be the LOWEST pending sales number that we have seen in many years.
The interest rate has gone up a full percentage point in the past 60 days (3.5% to 4.5%). I believe that the drop off in pending sales is a direct result of that, but not the sole reason. Pending sales started trending down before the rates started up. The rate increase has accelerated that.
The Active sales number is less concerning, as the market has had 17k+ listing from mid-October through early March when we saw the listed inventory drop to 15,578, on May 9th. It’s been growing since then and just about the same time that pending contracts started down (no coincidence). And Active listings are growing with a huge reduction in both short sales and Foreclosures! So our market is much healthier with the good ‘ol tradition sales. We fear that we are going to see the Days on Market numbers grow. That’s pretty clear
Now if you are looking to BUY, do you think that this data, professionally presented to a seller, could get you a better price and terms? If you are looking to SELL, you may need someone to deflect these numbers. In either case, YOU need someone who KNOWS THE NUMBERS. IN ANY MARKET, EXPERIENCE MATTERS.
Written by Steve Hayhurst, Arizona Experience Realty, 480-240-9724 ; info@azexp.com
Written by Steve Hayhurst, Arizona Experience Realty, 480-240-9724 ; info@azexp.com
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